Roy Jones’ Prefight Breakdown: Pacquiao-Marquez 4

by Eric Raskin

Former pound-for-pound king Roy Jones, who will provide analysis of Pacquiao-Marquez IV as part of the HBO Pay-Per-View broadcast team on Saturday night, breaks down his three keys to victory for each fighter:

Manny Pacquiao

1. Be first … and last: Pacquiao has to get off first, but he can’t stop there. He can’t attack and then fail to throw more punches behind that attack, because Marquez counterpunches too well. So he has to attack, then attack the counter. He has to produce, essentially, a double attack.

2. Move less, stalk more: Pacquiao can move around the ring some, but he needs to remember that he’s much more powerful than Marquez and take advantage of that. So I think he needs to limit the movement around the ring and try stalking Marquez more this fight. He has the power to knock Marquez down, as we saw in their first and second fights. Pacquiao must be the stalker this time. He must approach it like he’s trying to get rid of Marquez.

3. It all starts with the jab: Possibly the most important thing of all is that Pacquiao has to use his jab to control the tempo of the fight. If the jab is pumping out consistently, Marquez will never know what’s coming behind it--whether Pacquiao’s going to attack or unleash that double attack I referenced above.

 

Juan Manuel Marquez 

1. Accept the risks required to win: Before he can do anything else, Marquez has to make up in his mind, “Do I want gamble and try to win this fight, or do I just want to go 12 rounds with Pacquiao?” He was content in their third fight to leave it in the hands of the judges, and it didn’t work for him. He has to determine whether he’s satisfied to do that again or if he’s going to do everything possible to be certain of victory.

2. Counter in combination: If you pay attention to their third fight, you’ll notice that when Marquez counterpunches, it’s one shot and then he stops. Pacquiao was there to be hit again, but he didn’t throw again. And I understand that he didn’t throw it because he was afraid of getting caught himself, but that’s just the chance you have to take if you want to win. You can’t land a beautiful counterpunch, then stop and admire your work, because Pacquiao might land two or three more punches and the judges will give him the round.

3. Advance with lateral movement: Marquez has to consistently use lateral movement, left and right, to not allow Pacquiao to sit down on his punches and land power shots. By moving, he can keep Pacquiao off-balance and not let Pacquiao catch him. If Pacquiao catches him, he’s very capable of knocking Marquez out--much more capable of knocking him out than Marquez is of knocking Pacquiao out. Marquez is the better boxer. Lateral movement will help him exploit that.